duration estiates

 Your project has the following duration estimates for three activities:

Activity 1: Most likely - 9 days; Optimistic - 5 days; Pessimistic - 13 days
Activity 2: Most likely - 9 days; Optimistic - 4 days; Pessimistic - 14 days
Activity 3: Most likely - 9 days; Optimistic - 6 days; Pessimistic - 12 days

Which activity has the highest risk? 


1.    

Activity 1


2.    

Activity 2


3.    

Activity 3


4.    

All three activities have the same risk, because the most likely estimate for the three activities is the same

Activity 2

Highest risk can be identified by calaculating SD( More SD value leads high risk)

SD activity 1 = 1.33

Activity 2 = 1.66

Activity 3=1

Ans : Activity 2

 Yes, correct. Activity 2 will have high risk

 Higher the range , Greatest risk, Lower range low risk