3 point estimate

 

  James has been managing a hotel construction project in a busy street. He is in the process of estimating activity durations for building walls and calculates the most likely estimate as 15 days. However, the work may be delayed and could take up to 18 days if less experienced construction workers are used to build the walls. But, the engineer in- charge of the work estimates the duration as 8 days when prefabricated material is used. What is the expected duration of building walls using the three-point estimate, if the engineer's estimation is assumed correct?

A) 12 days

B) 11days

C) 15 days

D) 14 days

 

Applying the formula, PERT = 14.33 days. Hence chosen option C. Whereas answer is given as D. If such problems come up, should be round off or not? i.e.,  like 14.33 to 15 

 

 

 

 

 

I will say to use regular rounding, which mean if it is less than 0.5 than foor if it is gretater than 0.5 than ceiling. So if it is 14.49 than round it to 14 if its is 14.51 then 15

cnppmp's picture

Also for 14.50 as well 15  be picked


Regards CNP

Thank You!!!

Good explaination