Estimation Question

Submitted by Jp2786 on Tue, 04/15/2014 - 04:55
While planning the project, you discover that an expert resource might be available to work on your project. However, the resource manager will not commit to the resource being ion your team at the present time. The BEST thing would be to estimate the activity:-
a) As if the expert resources were available.
b) As though you had an average resource doing an activity.
c) As if you had an inexperienced resource
d) Using the Delphi Technique
Can some one help me with the above question pls.
Regards
Jp
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pkpmp

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 06:38

D is right ?

Jp2786

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 17:10

Hey... I dont have the answer either.. but I was also going for D. Just wanted to confirm my understanding with someone else.

Cheers

 

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admin

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 05:34

You should not consider the expert joining your team. So just plan for an average person and estimate. 

Latunde

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 07:47

Will go with D. Cos Delphi technique is a form of expert judgement and reaching a joint agreement according to expert on the team performing technical work. It is worthy to also mention that expert judgement is a valuable tool and technique of estimate activity durations & estimate activity resources. 

philstinnet

Sat, 04/19/2014 - 04:09

Why should the choice of Delphi technique be right ?

You are going to invite the experts to ask this question. And the expert will say - " From my experience, i can say that an average person can do this activity in this many days....."

And, this is the choice B.

So, why do you wanna use the choice D to reach to the choice B ?

It will be nice to know the answer. These are just my thoughts here and i can be totally wrong. 

sunku65

Sat, 04/19/2014 - 15:45

I stick with answer A.

Explanation:

1. While planning the project, you think the expert resource might be available, so that you need to take O,M,P activity estimates from with him only. 

2. While identifing risks need to Considering Expert Resource is a Risk in case he is not available at Executing.  so that prepare for  contingency plan for additional time as a Reserve(While inexperienced resource take more time).

2. The resource manager will not commit to the expert resource at present time(i.e. excecuting process), Then implement contingency plan(i.e. additional time for completing activity with inexperinced resource).

I think this can solve.

Thanks,

Laxman

 

Jp2786

Sat, 04/19/2014 - 19:20

Hey.. As one of the user posed above.... It is most probably D becuase it is also given in pmbok 5 that expert judgement is TT to estimate activity duration. 

My reasoning to eliminate B and A were

1. PM by himself should not estimate. He should involve stakeholder. He might not even know what the activity is all about. This a common theme in Rita guide as well.

2. B reads " b) As though you had an average resource doing an activity." this is very subjective, I mean what is average resource activity duration - 10 hrs , 15 hrs , 30 hrs? What?

3. Delphi Technique is TT used in estimate process where each SMEs (they know what needs to be done) would give estimates, if they had huge deviation, then PM would  take efforts to further narrowed down to reach better estimates

4. You can simply assume you will have expert resource when its not true (Answer A). 

5. While it is true that you can assume you will have expert respurce and add contigency reserve, then, in the real world projects, you will have contigency reserve so high that the sponsor/ buyer would not agree. I mean If my project were to have 100 resources, I can simply assume I will get 100 experts to perfrom the task and then add contigency for each resource then my budget will sky high.

So i guess D is best.

Cheers

Jp2786

Sat, 04/19/2014 - 19:24

4. You can't simply assume you will have expert resource when its not true (Answer A). 

5. While it is true that you can assume you will have expert respurce and add contigency reserve, then, in the real world projects, you will have contigency reserve so high that the sponsor/ buyer would not agree. I mean If my project were to have 100 resources, I can simply assume I will get 100 experts to perfrom the task and then add contigency for each resource then my budget will sky high and your schedule will be a bigger problem.

philstinnet

Sat, 04/19/2014 - 21:24

Your comment is very good and thought provoking.

We are looking this question under different lights.

I am trying to answer - 'What should be the basis of estimation'

You are trying to answer - ' who should estimate'

The question is asking - 'The best thing to estimate the activity'

Now, i feel that 'D' is the correct choice. And the story given before the question line -'The best thing to estimate the activity' - is just to confuse readers.

What is the correct answer ?

 

Thanks 

 

 

 

kevinkkyip

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 12:11

Actually both 'b' and 'd' are possible answer.

However, I tend to eliminate 'd'.  Although asking for expert judgment is perfectly OK, using Delphi technique with anonymity and several rounds to reach consensus is an overkill for such a simple estimate.  Moreover, experts can't foresee or wouldn't know better than the PM whether a resource would be available or not.  It isn't within their expertise as it's just an administrative or HR allocation exercise.  It's either a YES or a NO, and is largely under the control of the resource manager.

I think choice 'b' is the normal thing a PM do.  Allocate the reasonable time slot first and fine tune it in later iterative processes or once the resource availability becomes clearer.

kevinkkyip

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 12:27

... (cont.)

Let's say we use expert judgment (NOTE: not necessarily Delphi technique).  Without knowing that the expert resource will be available or not, these experts still need to assume an average resource.  Based on it, they then can estimte the optimistic, mean and permisstic time frame for the activity. 

So I tend to choose 'b' - we have to assume an average resource.

Sundara.damaraj...

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 02:13

I go for "D". The question is ementioning the "Availability" of the  expercat resource. Not the requirement.

Hence "A","B" and "C" can be eliminated. We need to choose the best Estimation technique for activity (duration).

Expert Judgement(Delphi Technique here) cannot be ignored, while estimation. This is the First TT

for "Estimate Activity Duration", "Estimate Activity resources" and "Estimate Costs".