question in risk management knowledge area

Submitted by vijayavadrevu on Sat, 03/16/2013 - 04:52

The question is: Management has just assigned you to an important new project and you need to figure out the path convergence in the figure shown, if the odds of completing activities 1, 2 and 3 on time are 50%, 30% and 40%. What are the chances of starting activity 4 on day 6??
Regards
Vijaya
 
 

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sspawar

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 06:47

It should be like this :=0.50*0.40*0.30 = 0.06


     

50%

      
     

ACTIVITY
1/ 5DAYS

      
   

> 

 

    
   

 

  

 

    
   

 

30%

 

  

6%

START

 

 

ACTIVITY
2/ 5DAYS

 

 

ACTIVITY 4

> 

> 

 

> 
   

 

  

 

    
   

 

40%

 

    
   

 

ACTIVITY
3/ 5DAYS

 

    
   

> 

      

vijayavadrevu

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 07:03

Thank You Sir